A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
