Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
